I'm freezing today.
Most days, I will freeze a few times.
so, I pull on my white hoodie
and feel like some ancient Druid priestess
and then, it hit me
I need a
FLOOR LENGTH
HOODIE
dammit
Cheers
Zora
Monday, May 4, 2015
KNOWBOT 1.0
kadavy.net | The Behavioral Revolution (not the Information Revolution)
kadavy.net | The Behavioral Revolution (not the Information Revolution)
Today I will work/write my robot comedy/drama/thriller/horror/ story, KNOWBOT, which is the working title for HOTBOT, SheBOT, Showbot, BOTbot, and my notion that neuroscience nanobots will usurp our brains and we will become cybernetic robotic humanoids with supernatural powers, and then, of course, there is the robot mutant problem, and the fact that all these android people hate all these ios people, and a war breaks out. Bush starts it.
Thanks to the Information revolution, “the bow tie
problem” has been solved,
along with many other
problems.
info revo is over,
behaviors rev begins
david kadavy
Take “the restaurant
problem.” Wherever you are,
you can find the highest
rated restaurant on Yelp or
Foursquare.
There’s “the long-lost
friend problem.” All of the
people from your past are
on Facebook, for better or
for worse.
There’s also the “when does
the next bus come?”
problem, the “who’s
single?” problem, and the
“why do cabs cost so damn
much?” problem.
Humans vs Robots: Is Your
Job Next?
This entry was posted in
Employment Trends on
September 5, 2014 by Lynn.
Artificial intelligence
going head to head against
the human race has been a
popular science fiction
theme amongst movies and
books, but could reality
share a similar fate with
these fictional stories?
A recent poll was sent to
lead experts in the
technology field
questioning the affect of
artificial intelligence on
the future economy. The
question posed to these
1986 experts was, “Self-
driving cars, intelligent
digital agents that can act
for you, and robots are
advancing rapidly. Will
networked, automated,
artificial intelligence
(AI) applications and
robotic devices have
displaced more jobs than
they have created by 2025?”
Forty-eight percent of the
respondents believed that
robots would displace a
significant amount of jobs
and cause widespread
socio-economic havoc while
52% were more optimistic
about artificial
intelligence, believing
that technology will create
more jobs than displaced
jobs by 2025. There were
several themes that were
shared amongst each
respective group and points
of agreement between the
two parties.
Top arguments for AI
improving the workplace:
1. History has proven that
technology has always
created jobs.
2. Even though
technological advances
displace older jobs, they
always create new
industries and thus new
jobs
3. There are certain jobs
only humans are capable of
completing
4. Technology is not
advancing quick enough to
impact the job market in
the near future
5. Humans have structures
in society that will assist
in minimalizing impact on
employment
My observation of
advances in automation has
been that they change jobs,
but they don’t reduce them.
A car that can guide itself
on a striped street has
more difficulty with an
unstriped street, for
example, and any automated
system can handle events
that it is designed for,
but not events (such as a
child chasing a ball into a
street) for which it is not
designed. Yes, I expect a
lot of change. I don’t
think the human race can
retire en masse by 2025.
– Fred Baker, internet
pioneer leader in IEFT and
Cisco Systems Fellow
Top arguments that AI will
displace more jobs than
create:
1. Workers are already
being replaced by AI, and
it’s just the beginning of
this revolution
2. Income inequality will
worsen
An increasing
proportion of the world’s
population will be outside
of the world of work—either
living on the dole, or
benefiting from the
dramatically decreased
costs of goods to eke out a
subsistence lifestyle. The
central question of 2025
will be: What are people
for in a world that does
not need their labor, and
where only a minority are
needed to guide the ‘bot-
based economy – Stewe Boyd,
lead researcher at GigaOM
Research
Though each side had
different takes on whether
or not technology will be
beneficial to future
economies, many agreed that
the current educational
system in place is not
sufficient to prep the
upcoming generation’s
workforce.
The jobs that the
robots will leave for
humans will be those that
require thought and
knowledge. In other words,
only the best-educated
humans will compete with
machines. And education
systems in the U.S. and
much of the rest of the
world are still sitting
students in rows and
columns, teaching them to
keep quiet and memorize
what is told to them,
preparing them for life in
a 20th century factory. –
Howard Rheingold,
pioneering internet
sociologist and writer
Experts also generally
agreed that the definition
of “work” and a “job” may
actually change
dramatically in the next
decade.
The possibilities amongst
this ideology is that
robots will cut down time
and effort spent on mundane
tasks and in result humans
will have more leisure
time.
If ‘displace more jobs’
means ‘eliminate dull,
repetitive, and unpleasant
work,’ the answer would be
yes. How unhappy are you
that your dishwasher has
replaced washing dishes by
hand?… The work week has
fallen from 70 hours a week
to about 37 hours now, and
I expect that it will
continue to fall… Robots of
various forms will result
in less work, but the
conventional work week will
decrease… This is what has
been going on for the last
300 years so I see no
reason that it will stop in
the decade. – Hal Varian,
chief economist Google
Another possibility in this
belief is that the
replacement of robots for
white and blue collar jobs
is that it will inspire
society to rethink how we
view the conventional
“job.”
It seems inevitable to
me that the proportion of
the population that needs
to engage in traditional
full-time employment, in
order to keep us fed,
supplied, healthy, and
safe, will decrease. I hope
this leads to a humane
restructuring of the
general social contract
around employment. – Tim
Bray, an active participant
in the IETF and technology
industry veteran
A substantial amount of
experts believed that with
the increase of
technologically created
goods, a movement of
human-made or human
operated goods will rise in
response.
I anticipate that there
will be a backlash and
we’ll see a continued
growth of artisanal
products and small-scale
[efforts], done myself or
with a small group of
others, that reject
robotics and digital
technology. – Tony
Siesfeld, director of the
Monitor Institute
Lastly, there was a
consensus that though
technology will inevitably
advance, the future is not
set in stone. Experts
agreed that humans will
have the ability to control
political, social, and
economic systems and thus
dictate the future impact
of technology on the
workforce.
There’s no economic law
that says the jobs
eliminated by new
technologies will
inevitably be replaced by
new jobs in new markets…
All of this is manageable
by states and economies:
but it will require
wrestling with
ideologically fraught
solutions, such as a
guaranteed minimum income,
and a broadening of our
social sense of what is
valuable work. -Seth
Finkelstein, programmer,
consultant and EFF Pioneer
of the Electronic Frontier
Which group do you side
with? Do you believe that
AI will effectively
displace more jobs than
create? More importantly,
whether you agree or not,
are you equipped to face
the imminent robo-centric
future?
Source: PewResearch
kadavy.net | The Behavioral Revolution (not the Information Revolution)
Today I will work/write my robot comedy/drama/thriller/horror/ story, KNOWBOT, which is the working title for HOTBOT, SheBOT, Showbot, BOTbot, and my notion that neuroscience nanobots will usurp our brains and we will become cybernetic robotic humanoids with supernatural powers, and then, of course, there is the robot mutant problem, and the fact that all these android people hate all these ios people, and a war breaks out. Bush starts it.
Thanks to the Information revolution, “the bow tie
problem” has been solved,
along with many other
problems.
info revo is over,
behaviors rev begins
david kadavy
Take “the restaurant
problem.” Wherever you are,
you can find the highest
rated restaurant on Yelp or
Foursquare.
There’s “the long-lost
friend problem.” All of the
people from your past are
on Facebook, for better or
for worse.
There’s also the “when does
the next bus come?”
problem, the “who’s
single?” problem, and the
“why do cabs cost so damn
much?” problem.
Humans vs Robots: Is Your
Job Next?
This entry was posted in
Employment Trends on
September 5, 2014 by Lynn.
Artificial intelligence
going head to head against
the human race has been a
popular science fiction
theme amongst movies and
books, but could reality
share a similar fate with
these fictional stories?
A recent poll was sent to
lead experts in the
technology field
questioning the affect of
artificial intelligence on
the future economy. The
question posed to these
1986 experts was, “Self-
driving cars, intelligent
digital agents that can act
for you, and robots are
advancing rapidly. Will
networked, automated,
artificial intelligence
(AI) applications and
robotic devices have
displaced more jobs than
they have created by 2025?”
Forty-eight percent of the
respondents believed that
robots would displace a
significant amount of jobs
and cause widespread
socio-economic havoc while
52% were more optimistic
about artificial
intelligence, believing
that technology will create
more jobs than displaced
jobs by 2025. There were
several themes that were
shared amongst each
respective group and points
of agreement between the
two parties.
Top arguments for AI
improving the workplace:
1. History has proven that
technology has always
created jobs.
2. Even though
technological advances
displace older jobs, they
always create new
industries and thus new
jobs
3. There are certain jobs
only humans are capable of
completing
4. Technology is not
advancing quick enough to
impact the job market in
the near future
5. Humans have structures
in society that will assist
in minimalizing impact on
employment
My observation of
advances in automation has
been that they change jobs,
but they don’t reduce them.
A car that can guide itself
on a striped street has
more difficulty with an
unstriped street, for
example, and any automated
system can handle events
that it is designed for,
but not events (such as a
child chasing a ball into a
street) for which it is not
designed. Yes, I expect a
lot of change. I don’t
think the human race can
retire en masse by 2025.
– Fred Baker, internet
pioneer leader in IEFT and
Cisco Systems Fellow
Top arguments that AI will
displace more jobs than
create:
1. Workers are already
being replaced by AI, and
it’s just the beginning of
this revolution
2. Income inequality will
worsen
An increasing
proportion of the world’s
population will be outside
of the world of work—either
living on the dole, or
benefiting from the
dramatically decreased
costs of goods to eke out a
subsistence lifestyle. The
central question of 2025
will be: What are people
for in a world that does
not need their labor, and
where only a minority are
needed to guide the ‘bot-
based economy – Stewe Boyd,
lead researcher at GigaOM
Research
Though each side had
different takes on whether
or not technology will be
beneficial to future
economies, many agreed that
the current educational
system in place is not
sufficient to prep the
upcoming generation’s
workforce.
The jobs that the
robots will leave for
humans will be those that
require thought and
knowledge. In other words,
only the best-educated
humans will compete with
machines. And education
systems in the U.S. and
much of the rest of the
world are still sitting
students in rows and
columns, teaching them to
keep quiet and memorize
what is told to them,
preparing them for life in
a 20th century factory. –
Howard Rheingold,
pioneering internet
sociologist and writer
Experts also generally
agreed that the definition
of “work” and a “job” may
actually change
dramatically in the next
decade.
The possibilities amongst
this ideology is that
robots will cut down time
and effort spent on mundane
tasks and in result humans
will have more leisure
time.
If ‘displace more jobs’
means ‘eliminate dull,
repetitive, and unpleasant
work,’ the answer would be
yes. How unhappy are you
that your dishwasher has
replaced washing dishes by
hand?… The work week has
fallen from 70 hours a week
to about 37 hours now, and
I expect that it will
continue to fall… Robots of
various forms will result
in less work, but the
conventional work week will
decrease… This is what has
been going on for the last
300 years so I see no
reason that it will stop in
the decade. – Hal Varian,
chief economist Google
Another possibility in this
belief is that the
replacement of robots for
white and blue collar jobs
is that it will inspire
society to rethink how we
view the conventional
“job.”
It seems inevitable to
me that the proportion of
the population that needs
to engage in traditional
full-time employment, in
order to keep us fed,
supplied, healthy, and
safe, will decrease. I hope
this leads to a humane
restructuring of the
general social contract
around employment. – Tim
Bray, an active participant
in the IETF and technology
industry veteran
A substantial amount of
experts believed that with
the increase of
technologically created
goods, a movement of
human-made or human
operated goods will rise in
response.
I anticipate that there
will be a backlash and
we’ll see a continued
growth of artisanal
products and small-scale
[efforts], done myself or
with a small group of
others, that reject
robotics and digital
technology. – Tony
Siesfeld, director of the
Monitor Institute
Lastly, there was a
consensus that though
technology will inevitably
advance, the future is not
set in stone. Experts
agreed that humans will
have the ability to control
political, social, and
economic systems and thus
dictate the future impact
of technology on the
workforce.
There’s no economic law
that says the jobs
eliminated by new
technologies will
inevitably be replaced by
new jobs in new markets…
All of this is manageable
by states and economies:
but it will require
wrestling with
ideologically fraught
solutions, such as a
guaranteed minimum income,
and a broadening of our
social sense of what is
valuable work. -Seth
Finkelstein, programmer,
consultant and EFF Pioneer
of the Electronic Frontier
Which group do you side
with? Do you believe that
AI will effectively
displace more jobs than
create? More importantly,
whether you agree or not,
are you equipped to face
the imminent robo-centric
future?
Source: PewResearch
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